AI Prompt for Strategic Scenario Planning
Map out 3-4 distinct futures for any strategic decision, with early indicators and contingency triggers for each.
What it does
Builds a structured scenario analysis for strategic decisions where the future is genuinely uncertain. Instead of picking one forecast and optimizing for it, this prompt maps 3-4 distinct futures, identifies the early signals that indicate which scenario is unfolding, and defines what to do in each case. Especially valuable for decisions with long time horizons, irreversible commitments, or high variance outcomes.
Example output
A 3–4 line excerpt of what this prompt produces.
Scenario B: Regulatory acceleration (probability: 25%, rising) The EU mandate takes effect 18 months early, forcing compliance spend before the product reaches break-even. Current cash runway covers 11 months of accelerated compliance; Scenario B becomes terminal at month 9 without bridge funding.
Early warning indicator: Draft directive language shifts from "should" to "shall" in committee markup — monitor EUR-Lex weekly. Contingency trigger: If two of three indicators fire before Q3, activate the bridge financing track immediately; do not wait for final vote.
Prompt structure
The sections this prompt guides the model through.
- 1. Uncertainty Matrix
- 2. Scenario Narratives
- 3. Early Warning Indicators
- 4. Robust Strategies
- 5. Contingency Triggers
- 6. Recommendation
Opening lines
The first lines of the prompt itself.
Build a scenario planning analysis for the following strategic decision.…
One rule from the prompt
A single rule — the full prompt contains more.
Each indicator must be observable — not "market sentiment shifts" (that's not observable), but "monthly app downloads drop below 10k for 3 consecutive months." Pre-committed contingency triggers are the most valuable part: decisions made calmly in advance beat decisions made reactively under stress.
Unlock the full prompt
Part of the Strategic Analysis Pack — 7 prompts for CHF 19.
View pack — CHF 19